Some thoughtful conclusions there, Erik. I agree with "more rapid increase in effort vs speed" for paddling vs running.
There are so many variables for this that you would have to ask a more precise question in order to get anything like a useful, or vaguely correct, answer.
I am a runner who paddles. I am better than average as a runner and worse than average as a paddler. This has to do with physique and with with the focus of my training. My speed for any distance (I'll have to extrapolate, because I've never paddled further than 20k and I run mountain ultras) is definitively faster when running. This is despite my heart rate being definitively higher, again for any speed. Hence I am using more calories when running. My perceived effort however, is higher when paddling, because my paddling muscles aren't as strong. With paddling, my limitation is muscular exhaustion, with running, it is cardiovascular, or metabolic, or bloody sore feet.
So within the limits of speed, as described by Erik, I think there will be a variability amongst people dependent on physique and training. However, given the running muscles are larger and more naturally trainable (I don't think the core muscles we use for paddling can be persuaded to change much to fast twitch) I reckon most people would be like me, ie, more easily able to run faster than they paddle, but use more calories doing it.
Past skis: Spirit PRS, EpicV10Sport Performance, Epic V10 Elite, Stellar SES Advantage. Current skis: Fenn Elite Spark, Fenn Swordfish vacuum. Custom Horizon, Epic V7